To what extent has the Corona crisis affected the global economy and how do we deal with it?

To what extent has the Corona crisis affected the global economy and how do we deal with it?

Preface

The crisis of the spread of Corona ignited the spark of the decline of financial markets globally due to the clarity of its impact on the future growth of the global economy, as reports and studies are currently discussing the entry of the global economy into a contraction of approximately 5% during the year 2020 AD, and its recovery may be delayed until after 2021 AD. In addition, and quite simply, the impact of this will extend to the oil markets, directly affecting negatively the volume of demand during the coming period, which could extend for several years.

One of the most prominent comments on the global economy came from a statement by the head of the International Monetary Fund, Kristalina Georgieva, where she indicated that the global economy has officially entered a recession that may be worse than what happened in 2009.

I noted that since the IMFC’s last call just weeks ago, we have reassessed the prospects for growth for 2020 and 2021. It is now clear that we have entered a recession as bad or worse than in 2009. We do project recovery in 2021. In fact, there may be a sizable rebound, but only if we succeed with containing the virus everywhere and prevent liquidity problems from becoming a solvency issue

In any case, the global economy before the crisis of the spread of Corona was in a weak stage of its life cycle and it was revived from time to time with some political decisions through monetary policy, mainly, and in a few cases using public finance policy during the past few years. And as we all followed, countries will continuously support their economies, as the G20 is currently calling to support the global economy with $5 trillion in the form of stimulus programs that the United States of America began when it recently approved a government stimulus program of $2 trillion.

How do we plan to invest the next stage?

The investment management process and choosing the appropriate strategy is not as easy as we can imagine. There are several factors that affect this decision, foremost of which is the size of the current savings and the size of the future savings that the individual intends to invest to achieve his goals, but with the significant decline in the local and global markets, the opportunity has become good for investment after it started Prices become relatively cheap, and we are anticipating the next growth before 2023 AD, God willing.

Therefore, during the coming period, we will discuss investment ideas and strategies through the following axes:

  • Investment strategy for savings worth less than 1 million riyals

Building a portfolio containing local assets, including shares of Saudi companies listed on Tadawul and Nomu Market, local government sukuk, real estate traded funds (REITs), and finally short-term earnings will be reviewed.

  • Investment strategy for savings worth more than 1 million to less than 20 million riyals

In addition to the previous assets, the idea of investing in additional assets such as the American, Chinese and European money market will be reviewed. A bold investment, in addition to a residential property in a foreign country for the purpose of housing or investment.

In the same context, and not necessarily in order, we will discuss issues related to current and upcoming investment risks, whether locally in Saudi Arabia or internationally in the target countries, including the following:

  • The risks of the growth of the global economy and oil during the crisis of the spread of the Corona virus
  • The risks of the transformation process in Saudi Arabia and the risks of implementing Saudi Vision 2030
  • The risks of investing in a foreign residential property, whether for investment or housing

I thank you for your follow-up and trust, and please do not hesitate to include your suggestions and questions in the responses section for future processing.